Germany’s listed real estate stocks have performed much better than the stock market as a whole this year, and have delivered much better performance than their cousins, the open-ended mutual funds, according to new figures from global investment manager Timbercreek.
Timbercreek is expecting returns of up to 10.6% on average by end-2020, a further 0.2% on what they’ve likely returned this year.
Timbercreek cite the example of Dream Global, quoted on both the Frankfurt and Toronto Stock Exchanges, which is a mainly office investor in Germany and the Netherland, and which was recently swallowed up by private equity group Blackstone for a premium of 9% over its latest listed NAV.
Germany’s DIMAX index of stock market listed property companies has risen over the past five years by 114%, while the German RX REIT Performance Index, which includes the actual REITS Alstria Office and Hamborner, had risen by 38% since the beginning of the year and October 21st. By comparison, the DAX rose by (only) 22% over the same period.
Alstria Office REIT, for example, has risen by 37.5% this year, with a low fluctuation risk (volatility of only 13.3%), while Vonovia’s paper rose by 21% over the period, with a volatility of 19.6%. By contrast, Vonovia rival Deutsche Wohnen has seen its share price fall this year by 13.7%, with a volatility of 23.5%, largely as a result of the ongoing debate about capping Berlin residential rents.
