BulwienGesa 2013
Forecast: Capacity utilisation of care homes in 2009, 2030 und 2060
German research provider BulwienGesa examines the topic of eldercare with one question in mind: how many care homes will Germany need in the years to come? This question is important to Germany families, to the German government (both local and on the federal level) and to real estate investors willing to explore new ventures.
BulwienGesa's first finding is about families: The deteriorating relation of people potentially able to provide care to care-dependant individuals is exacerbated by socio-structural factors, such as the altered household/family structures and the increasing number of women in the workforce. This latter factor matters insofar as the majority of nursing staff tends to be female.
The second finding is about facilities: In terms of beds available in a given district (base year: 2009), the present capacity utilisation of publicly owned facilities in West Germany, which is often somewhere between 60 % and 90 %, will soon seem like ancient history. The gap in care provision will rapidly widen between 2030 and 2060: The eldercare sector is about to transform from a supply-driven into a demand-driven market. Assuming a constant number of slots per care home, the total number of care homes would need to almost quintuple from 11,633 (2009) to 55,322 (2060).
- For further information contact Martin Steininger (steininger@bulwiengesa.de) and Dr. Heike Piasecki (piasecki@bulwiengesa.de)