Mixed reports on house price changes, as housing demand increases

A survey by the McMakler property portal claims that German residential property prices have stabilised since the beginning of the year, remaining unchanged since last year's final quarter, but down 0.8% on the equivalent quarter last year.

These figures seem surprisingly optimistic to us at REFIRE. For the fourth quarter, the Federal Statistics Office reported a significant fall in residential property prices of 7.1% compared to the same quarter of 2022, and a fall of 2% on Q3 of 2023.

McMakler integrated its own transaction data for the survey, based on actual sales prices it had itself transacted. These seemed to underline McMakler's view that in several German cities prices had even risen this quarter, by around 1% in the big cities of Hamburg, Frankfurt and Munich, and by 0.3% in Berlin.

Perhaps more relevant than the actual figures is what McMakler describes as a significant groundswell in fresh demand. According to Felix Jahn, founder and managing director of the hybrid broker, the interest rate trend has "already led to a noticeable revitalisation of the market. Prospective buyers are regaining confidence." Demand rose by 4.8% in the first quarter, following an increase of 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 - measured in terms of enquiries per property advertisement.

McMakler says there have been big jumps in interest in buying in Berlin and Hamburg of about 20% each. They're seeing above-average demand nationwide in the price segment up to €250,000 (up 7.9% ) and for properties with prices of €750,000 to one million euros - i.e. typically in the lower residential segment and for higher-priced properties, mostly houses in metropolitan regions.

The McMakler survey result on increasing demand ties in with internet portal ImmoScout24, who noted that demand for existing owner-occupied flats is increasing across Germany and in all eight metropolises compared to the previous quarter. In the cities of Hamburg, Cologne, Munich, Frankfurt am Main and Berlin, it is already above the pre-coronavirus level of the end of 2019.