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A new study published by ApartmentAllianz Berlin (AAB), the association representing furnished apartment providers in the German capital, claims there are just 6,000 genuine vacation rentals (short-term rentals) in Berlin — a figure the organisation says demolishes what it calls years of inflated and politically motivated scaremongering.
The study, Facts Instead of Fiction – How Many Vacation Rentals Are There Really in Berlin?, is the first of its kind commissioned by the AAB and draws on data from the Inside Airbnb analysis tool alongside inquiries to the Berlin state parliament. Set against Berlin's total apartment stock of 2.01 million units, the AAB puts the vacation rental share at a mere 0.29% — a figure it argues makes the sector a negligible factor in the city's housing market.
"The bottom line is that vacation rentals account for only a negligible proportion of all apartments in Berlin," said Stephan la Barré, deputy chairman of the AAB. He cited a separate study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering in support, claiming it found that a market of this scale has no measurable impact on citywide rental levels.
A city under political pressure
The AAB has not published this study in a vacuum. Berlin is heading towards House of Representatives elections in September, and current polling points to a possible red-red-green coalition — a combination of the SPD, the Left Party, and the Greens. All three parties are engaged in what one commentator has described as a "rabbit race" to stake out the most assertive left-wing position on housing, with expropriation of large landlords, rent caps, and sweeping new tenant protection legislation all on the table.
The Left Party made headlines this week with a proposed "Secure Housing Act" that would compel major landlords to allocate up to 50% of newly rented apartments to holders of housing eligibility certificates, at capped rents. The Greens, for their part, are pushing an "Affordable Rent Act" along similar lines, and have also backed a referendum on the socialisation of large housing companies. Underlining the mood, Berlin's state-owned rent review office — active since last April — reported this week that 94% of the 339 rental agreements it had examined were charging illegally high rents, with two-thirds potentially constituting a criminal offence.
In this charged environment, short-term vacation rentals make an easy political target. Critics on the left have long argued that Airbnb-style platforms hollow out residential neighbourhoods and deprive ordinary Berliners of housing. It is this narrative that the AAB is directly challenging.
A contested landscape
Competing estimates of the short-term rental market's size have circulated widely, with some figures reaching as high as 40,000 units. At a press briefing attended by REFIRE, the AAB went to considerable lengths to discredit such numbers, arguing they conflate genuine vacation rentals — units rented for less than 90 days at a time — with the short-term letting of individual rooms or the occasional rental of someone's own primary residence.
"The topic of vacation rentals is complex and must be viewed in a differentiated manner," said AAB chairwoman Romana Wolfram. "There are many false and far too high figures circulating. We have intensively evaluated all available sources."
Readers should note that the AAB is an industry body with a direct stake in shaping this debate, and independent verification of its 6,000 figure remains limited, so far. The Fraunhofer reference is cited second-hand. Those inclined to take the higher estimates more seriously will find the association's methodology worth scrutinising.
The economic case
Beyond the housing argument, the AAB is also making an economic case. According to its study, vacation rentals generate €141 million in annual market turnover in Berlin, with direct and indirect added value of €438 million. Around 6,400 jobs are said to depend on the sector, which also contributes €72 million in VAT and €51 million in income tax annually.
On regulatory compliance, the association says only 31 of its 6,000 units lack a licence or registration number — 0.41% — pushing back against the perception that the sector operates in a legal grey zone. It also argues that vacation rentals offer a meaningful cost advantage for tourists: a family of four would have paid an average of €272 per night for two Berlin hotel rooms in 2024, against €176 for a two-bedroom vacation rental.
Whether this study shifts the political needle is another matter. With September's elections approaching and all three likely coalition partners competing to outflank each other on tenant protection, the AAB's figures — however carefully assembled — face a headwind that data alone may struggle to overcome.