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As 2024 comes to an end, building interest rates in Germany have remained steady throughout the year, despite a turbulent global backdrop." Stability has been the hallmark of the year, yet it hasn’t equated to inertia. Interest rates have continued to shape strategies and decision-making amid geopolitical upheavals and significant economic pressures. It's worth looking at where rates began, how the landscape has shifted, and what may lie ahead for 2025.
At the start of 2024, construction interest rates hovered around 3%, a level that held steady throughout the year. Michael Neumann, Chairman of the Management Board of Dr. Klein Privatkunden AG, called it a “remarkably stable” environment, with fluctuations limited to less than 0.5 percentage points. Prospective property buyers, he noted, had quickly adapted to this “new normal.”
"Incomes have risen, inflation has moderated, and property prices have fallen overall, making residential property significantly more affordable," Neumann explained. This newfound stability spurred a rise in purchases compared to 2023, even as new-build activity took a sharp hit. Between January and September 2024, building permits for single-family homes and flats fell by 25.7% and 22.2%, respectively, reflecting a broader stagnation in the new-build market.
Schnabel's warning on monetary easing
The European Central Bank (ECB) initiated a cautious series of rate cuts during the summer, aiming to counteract weakening economic indicators. By December, the key interest rate reductions had nudged mortgage rates for ten-year loans down to about 2.9%, their lowest point of the year. However, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has been striking a cautionary note, warning against excessive monetary easing.
“Should interest rates fall too sharply, they could dip below the neutral level, potentially destabilising the economy,” Schnabel argued. Her words underscored a delicate balancing act as the ECB sought to stimulate growth without overshooting its mark. Meanwhile, geopolitical events—from Donald Trump’s re-election in the US to the collapse of Germany’s coalition government—added new layers of unpredictability.
Mirjam Mohr, Chief Sales Officer at Interhyp, observed that while short-term fluctuations in mortgage rates were possible, significant drops were unlikely. “Even if the ECB lowers the key rate further, the impact on long-term building loan rates will be minimal,” she noted. Rising yields on federal bonds, driven by political instability and global economic shifts, only added to the complexity.
As December 2024 unfolds, construction interest rates remain within a corridor of 3.0% to 3.5% for ten-year loans. For some, this stability offers a reprieve; for others, it signals caution. Daniel Ritter, managing partner at Von Poll Immobilien, emphasised the need for decisiveness: “Interest rates can quickly reverse direction, so prospective buyers should act when conditions are favourable.”
Macroeconomic trends also played a critical role. Moderate inflation and rising incomes improved affordability for many buyers, even as political instability—including Trump’s proposed tariffs and tax changes—threatens to push up borrowing costs. The ECB’s careful approach to monetary easing reflected its attempt to navigate these headwinds without losing sight of its long-term goals.
The outlook for 2025
The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. Experts generally agree that rates will stay relatively stable in the short term, hovering around 3.0% to 3.5%. However, the medium- to long-term trajectory is less predictable. According to Interhyp’s latest panel, half of their experts foresee a potential climb toward 4% by late 2025, driven by higher government debt and inflationary pressures.
Lutz Johanning, Chair of Empirical Capital Market Research at WHU, offered a measured perspective: “Market expectations for interest rates rarely materialise exactly, but the probability of rising rates grows as the horizon extends.” Speaking at the recent Real Estate Finance Day in Frankfurt, Johanning stressed the importance of understanding these risks, particularly for investors reliant on long-term borrowing.
For real estate investors, the challenge lies in balancing opportunity with caution. While waiting for rates to decline further may seem tempting, the consensus among experts is clear: the window for favourable financing conditions is open but narrowing. As Michael Voigtländer of the German Economic Institute advised, “If you’ve found a suitable property, the current conditions are comparatively good for concluding a loan agreement.” The focus, he emphasised, should remain on securing properties with strong fundamentals rather than speculating on future rate cuts.
REFIRE: The ECB’s recent December rate cut to 3.0%—its fourth reduction this year—has brought mortgage rates to an annual low of 2.9% for ten-year terms. Analysts, including Dr. Klein CEO Michael Neumann, believe the change is already priced into building interest rates, suggesting limited fluctuations through early 2025. The yield on ten-year German government bonds, currently at 2.15%, is also falling, creating room for further moderation in construction financing costs.
Mortgage trends will of course be influenced by broader economic uncertainties and market dynamics, including weak property prices and an unstable political climate. Looking ahead, projections still suggest interest rates may stabilise in the 3.0% to 3.5% range by spring, offering grounds for some optimism for homebuyers and developers.
