Composite: rohmert-medien.de / REFIRE
Werner Rohmert’s 600th issue of “Der Immobilienbrief” lands not with a triumphant fanfare, but with the sombre clarity of someone who has spent 35 years charting the German real estate market’s unpredictable tides. Rohmert’s milestone, built on decades of sharp analysis and a hands-on understanding of the sector’s idiosyncrasies, is no routine edition—it is a cautionary meditation on Germany’s real estate present and future.
At the heart of Rohmert’s argument is a stark recognition: the old growth cycle has neither truly ended nor reached its nadir. “The ashes of its assets and matadors will fuel the phoenix of the new cycle,” he writes, suggesting that even as new NPL opportunities beckon, the structural fissures in the market are far from healed. His central thesis is that the current economic downturn is not merely cyclical, but the product of deep-rooted structural weaknesses that have been decades in the making.
Rohmert traces this diagnosis back to what he sees as a wasted opportunity during the zero-interest era. Rather than investing in education, digitalisation and housing, Germany, he contends, “fell in love with the ignorance of physics and the ideological obedience of all governments.” The result: a country that squandered its competitive advantage and now finds itself grappling with the consequences of neglected investment and complacent political leadership.
The Agony of the Office Sector
Rohmert is particularly unsparing in his assessment of the office market. Transactions, he notes, have collapsed by up to 80%, with prime office values down 30 to 40% and lower-grade assets at risk of becoming stranded altogether. The sector’s difficulties are compounded by what he identifies as the “six waves” battering German real estate: economic slump, interest-rate shocks, home office adoption, climate-related retrofitting risks, AI and digitalisation headwinds, and, crucially, Germany’s own deindustrialisation.
For Rohmert, the office sector’s agony is not a temporary setback, but a long, drawn-out reckoning. Standstill agreements and tenant churn threaten to trigger the classic downward spiral of rising vacancies and capital calls. “Despite all experience showing that hopes for a soft landing almost always end in the worst-case scenario, I am hoping for the middle scenario of turbulent cross waves,” he observes wryly—a sentiment that will resonate uncomfortably with many institutional investors nursing battered portfolios.
The interplay of these forces, he warns, will reshape the market far more fundamentally than political quick fixes. Regulatory overreach and ideological fixations—whether in the form of rent control or blanket climate mandates—are seen as obstacles rather than solutions. “Only by riding along can you be the first to get off,” he quips, highlighting the need for engaged, rather than passive, investment strategies in this phase of the cycle.
Looking Forward
Still, Rohmert does not entirely dismiss the prospect of a rebound. He acknowledges that in every cycle, new opportunities will eventually emerge. In residential real estate, he argues, revisiting proven tax incentives and reducing regulatory drag could help bring fresh supply to the market—echoing earlier successes in the aftermath of German reunification. But he is sceptical that the political will exists to enact such reforms at the scale and speed required.
His reflections also reach beyond real estate into Germany’s broader political and economic outlook. Rohmert laments what he sees as the growing dislocation between the country’s political class—enthralled by moral imperatives and climate dogma—and the practical realities of a highly competitive global economy. “What no one in this coalition understands is that all the benefits that are distributed are, without exception, earned by the private sector,” he states pointedly, underscoring a perspective that will strike a chord with many REFIRE readers navigating today’s complex policy environment.
For all the dire warnings, there is a note of resigned hope. Rohmert concedes that while structural weaknesses cannot be magicked away, there are always pockets of opportunity in the ashes of old cycles. “A new game is starting with the new cycle,” he writes, though his tone suggests that this game will demand a higher tolerance for turbulence than many would like to admit.
It is precisely this blend of historical perspective, on-the-ground experience and sceptical wit that has made “Der Immobilienbrief” such a persistent presence in the German real estate landscape. At 600 issues, Rohmert’s voice remains a compelling counterpoint: sober, unsentimental, and never afraid to tilt at the windmills of political and market orthodoxy. We may not always agree with him—but at this juncture, his steady hand on the cycle’s pulse is worth more than a passing glance.