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Senior loan spreads in European commercial real estate have nearly tripled since the start of 2024, rising from 1.1% to 3.2% over EURIBOR. That is not a cyclical wobble. It is a structural repricing of debt — and new data published in mid-May suggests the shift is accelerating.
The figures come from CREMI, the Commercial Real Estate Mortgage Index, launched by Swiss lending platform FinLoop in collaboration with Dr. Nicole Lux, lead author of the long-running Bayes UK CRE Lending Report. Unlike existing European benchmarks built from lender disclosures, CREMI draws on borrower-side data, capturing the price borrowers actually agreed across the market rather than what lenders chose to report. This allows private debt mortgage spreads to be aligned with CMBS and public bond markets, enabling cross-market comparison that European investors have not previously had. The inaugural Q1 2026 reading covers €24bn of European loans.
The headline number is stark: senior spreads widened 70 basis points in Q1 alone, with junior spreads up 150bps. “The Q1 numbers are a wake-up call,” said FinLoop CEO Thomas Schneider. “Banks have widened pricing and pulled back on leverage at the same time.” Borrowers approaching refinancing in 2026 are facing a structurally different cost of debt than they did even twelve months ago.
A market pulling in two directions
The market is splitting along clear lines. Banks dominated origination — accounting for 73% of all new European CRE lending in Q1 — but priced conservatively, at 2.7% over EURIBOR and an average 53% LTV. Debt funds offered more leverage (64% LTV) but at a significant cost premium: 6.0% over EURIBOR, a gap of 330bps. Borrowers who need higher leverage are paying heavily for it.
The more significant shift is in leverage itself. In 2025, 41% of new lending was agreed in the 60–70% LTV range. By Q1 2026, that figure had fallen to just 12%. Meanwhile, 59% of new loans were written at 50–60% LTV. The market is moving down the capital stack, forcing borrowers to commit more equity at the same time as debt costs rise. That combination is the defining constraint in European real estate finance today.
Quality is becoming a prerequisite rather than a preference. Some 57% of Q1 lending was secured against Class A or capital-city assets, up from 34% in 2025. For prime assets, banks were willing to extend capex financing at 2.7–3.7% over EURIBOR — competitive pricing by current standards. Secondary assets face a markedly different market.
The refinancing wall: pushed out, not removed
For investors braced for a wave of refinancing stress in 2026 and 2027, the CREMI data shifts the timeline rather than removing the risk. Some 59% of loans in the dataset mature between 2030 and 2032, with a further 29% before 2030. The refinancing “wall” is therefore less an immediate event than a more concentrated problem later in the decade — extending the adjustment period but not reducing its scale.
That does not ease current pressure. Borrowers coming to market now are operating in a fundamentally different cost environment than when many existing loans were originated. Refinancing assumptions formed even twelve months ago are already out of date. For fund and asset managers with near-term maturities, the repricing CREMI captures is not theoretical — it is the number on the next term sheet.