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Tempelhofer Feld, Berlin
Berlin’s housing crisis is deepening, and its most potent symbol may once again be Tempelhofer Feld. A decade after voters halted development on the 300-hectare former airfield, the CDU-SPD city government is reviving plans to build up to 20,000 new homes on its periphery. Mayor Kai Wegner insists the time for action has come. His critics, from opposition parties to citizens’ groups, accuse him of dressing up a land grab in the language of affordability. As the politics around Tempelhof intensify, the question looms: can Berlin actually build its way out of crisis, or will inertia, ideology and mistrust continue to throttle its ability to deliver?
The answer matters. Berlin’s population is growing by up to 30,000 a year, according to CBRE’s Michael Schlatterer, Yet with completions stalling at just 15,362 last year, far short of the 20,000 needed annually to keep pace, the city is falling badly behind. The Senate estimates that more than 100,000 additional apartment units are already required to absorb current demand. And while 43,530 dwellings are in planning or under construction, including a significant share for rental use, the delivery pace is slow, and the backlog is growing. Serial construction, used in projects like Zwieseler Hof and Friedenauer Höhe, is helping at the margins, but Berlin’s permitting process remains chronically congested.
A market frozen by mismatched supply and affordability
Affordability is deteriorating fast. Median asking rents now stand at €15.79 per square metre (per month), up from €8.50 in 2015. In central districts such as Mitte and Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, they exceed €19–20. Tenants in existing leases, by contrast, pay an average of €9/m²—and those in municipal housing often less than €7.50. According to Catella’s Lars Vandrei, the rent gap between new and existing contracts in Berlin now stands at 92%, the widest among Germany’s major cities. The result is market paralysis. “Smaller households are staying in their large apartments,” says Vandrei. “It creates inefficiencies and underutilisation, which in turn leads to a lower supply of existing apartments and a faster rise in new rents.”
Vacancy is almost nonexistent. The Wohnmarktreport from Berlin Hyp and CBRE puts it at just 0.3%, down from 0.7% five years ago. There’s no sign this will improve. “The stabilisation of rents is not in sight,” says Schlatterer. Despite efforts to develop modular housing, retrofit old barracks, and convert micro-living stock, overall supply remains thin. New completions have declined steadily since their 2019 peak. As Christian Müller, chairman of the Berlin-Brandenburg AIV (Architekten- und Ingenieurverein), put it: “Berliners want everything to stay as it is—until they receive notice to vacate and have to look for an apartment themselves.”
Projects are advancing, but slowly and unevenly. At Friedenauer Höhe, a 1,100-unit car-free neighbourhood by Instoneand OFB Projektentwicklung, it took ten years from initial concept to permit. “Our goal is to create living spaces that meet the diverse needs of people,” said Saidah Bojens of Instone. “Friedenauer Höhe is a new, liveable district for 2,500 people... combining modern architecture, sustainable construction and social infrastructure.”
In Karlshorst, WvM’s Zwieseler Hof is delivering 321 flats, with 30% subsidised and the rest cross-financed via higher sales prices. “To meet the 30 percent rent-controlled quota, we had to calculate very carefully,” said Clemens Paschke. “The extra burden amounted to around €300 to €400 per square metre.” The project will complete by 2027 using serial construction by Goldbeck. Paschke expects interest to pick up again, and is actively scouting for more land.
Capital is returning, but risk appetite has changed
Investor interest is recovering, although with revised expectations. The multi-family and mixed-use market showed clear signs of life last year. Transaction volumes rose to €4.3 billion, up 44% year-on-year, according to Berlin’s expert committee. Average prices fell by 8.5% to €1,954/m², and gross yield multipliers declined to 23.1 times net cold rent. Private and semi-professional buyers are leading the charge. “People are buying to diversify portfolios and pass on assets intergenerationally,” said Philip C. Hetzer of DAHLER Invest. “And more Berliners are buying Berlin again.”
Institutional players are also returning, but cautiously. “Berlin remains the largest residential market in Europe and is still highly liquid,” says Andreas Polter of JLL. “Every second investor interested in Germany is really looking at Berlin.” Long-hold investors are focusing on legal uplift strategies in existing buildings, with a clear preference for refurbishable stock over speculative new-builds. With the failed Mietendeckel no longer casting its shadow, and the CDU in the mayor’s office, Berlin’s political profile is being reassessed. “It’s a question of how much political friction an investor is willing to tolerate,” says Polter.
Tempelhof returns to the front line of Berlin housing politics
Tempelhofer Feld has returned to the centre of Berlin’s housing debate. The 2014 referendum that blocked development on the site remains legally binding, but the CDU-SPD coalition is once again testing the limits. An international planning competition is under way, and Wegner has proposed building 15,000 to 20,000 homes along the site’s edges. His critics, including the Greens, the Left, and citizen groups—accuse the coalition of using housing policy to legitimise speculative goals. “They keep claiming it’s about housing needs,” said Anita Möller of 100% Tempelhofer Feld. “But let’s be honest: it’s about money, speculation and investor dreams.”
Developers, planners and the GdW support limited development of the site. Christian Müller of the Berlin-Brandenburger AIV advocates a compromise. “We could house 100,000 people there without it being cramped,” he says, if density is concentrated and affordability is anchored by state-led partnerships. The site’s public ownership and central location make it unusually viable. But for now, the Tempelhofer Feld Preservation Act remains in force, reversible only by Senate majority.
More broadly, Berlin’s delivery machine remains underpowered. According to Periskop CEO Simon Kempf, the new “Bau-Turbo” law could help simplify processes, but only if local authorities are properly resourced. “Only if cities and municipalities benefit in the short term will there be real momentum for implementation,” he told the recent RUECKERCONSULT panel on Berlin housebuilding. Periskop is currently planning a 72,000 m² development in Lichtenberg, where 80% of the floor area will be residential. Yet the building permit remains pending. “It’s not just a cost issue,” said WvM’s Paschke. “It’s a time issue. We wait years for permits.”
Berlin remains investable. Its scale, liquidity and demographic momentum continue to attract capital, and the legal and regulatory climate—while complex—is more stable than in recent memory. But the gap between need and delivery is widening. What’s missing is agreement on what kind of city Berlin wants to be, and whether it is still prepared to deliver the frameworks that institutional capital can trust.