
Dr. Arenth / Envato / REFIRE
Dr. Joachim Arenth is the founder and CEO of JenAcon, a strategy consultancy specializing in real estate, M&A, and restructuring advice primarily for retail property portfolios. Although active across all asset categories, JenAcon is best known for its expertise in structuring sales processes for grocery-anchored retail portfolios.
Recently, REFIRE sat down with Dr. Arenth to discuss his views on the German real estate market, his company’s milestones, and his unique take on the state of the nation. Some excerpts from our conversation:
REFIRE: Joachim, you’ve been in this business for more than two decades. Your company, JenAcon, has now concluded over 100 transactions of varying complexity. What’s your take on the current German market?
Dr. Joachim Arenth: I’m in what I’d call a classic Goldilocks situation – not too hot, not too cold – though leaning slightly towards the warmer end. On one hand, it’s amusing to think back to John Kampfner’s 2020 book, Why the Germans Do It Better, which cast Germany as a “grown-up country” and a benchmark for Europe. Let’s be honest, though: steady on, John! We’re hardly in ruins, but we’re certainly not the pristine poster child we once imagined.
REFIRE: A sentiment reflected in recent headlines. Take Deutsche Bahn’s performance during the European Football Championship...
Dr. Joachim Arenth: Ah, yes. As a football fan, even I cringed at that debacle. But it’s a symptom of something larger. Germany’s infrastructure hasn’t rotted overnight. Whether it’s bridges in need of repair or 100-year-old water pipes under Berlin, the cracks in our system have been growing for decades. From public swimming pools to schools and kindergartens, the country’s structural upkeep has been sorely neglected. Fixing it will take more than a quick patch. Just look at the Rhine bridge in Ludwigshafen that can no longer be reached—a perfect metaphor for how we’ve ignored key investments for far too long.
REFIRE: So, has Germany really become the “Sick Man of Europe” again?
Dr. Joachim Arenth: Let’s not get carried away. Sure, economic stagnation is undeniable, and our current government has its challenges. I am sure French, British or Italian schoolkids will also have their difficulties to name their Prime Ministers in chronological order, don ́t you agree? It’s all relative. Germany has been through worse. In 2005, unemployment stood at five million; now it’s under three million despite significant immigration. Plus, we have record private wealth of €9.3 trillion, up 6% from last year. That’s not the mark of a country in ruins.
REFIRE: Fair point, but pointing fingers doesn’t fix stagnation. What do you see as Germany’s core ailment?
Dr. Joachim Arenth: It’s a mentality issue. Despite the wealth and stability, three-quarters of Germans view their personal situation as either “OK” or outright “bad.” Only 10% think their economic prospects will improve, while 60% believe they’ll get worse. Self-confidence has evaporated. Even worse, the work ethic has been in decline for decades. People like to blame East Germans, immigrants, Gen Z, the Left, the Right, social media, political figures, billionaires, you name it. But this is structural. It’s a slow-burning cultural shift.
REFIRE: And yet, you’ve said you’re optimistic. Why?
Dr. Joachim Arenth: Because history is cyclical. As a baby boomer, I’ve seen crises come and go: the oil shock, the Cold War, the dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crash, Covid-19, several wars. Each time, markets recover, often stronger than before. JenAcon celebrates its 20th anniversary next year, and we’re stronger than ever. Real estate is no different – inflation is easing, interest rates are stabilizing, and there’s a window of opportunity for smart investors in 2025. As a realist, I’ve never believed in utopian theories about history coming to a happy ending. It doesn’t. It keeps going, and so must we.
REFIRE: If you were a billionaire with a focus on real estate, where would you invest?
Dr. Joachim Arenth: Pragmatism first. I’d allocate a third of my money to safe, cash-flow-generating assets – long WALTs, mixed-use properties, ESG- compliant. Another third would go into mid-tier assets, like grocery-anchored retail. They’re harder to find but still available. The last third? High-risk, high-reward projects: revitalizing shopping malls or developments in cities like Munich or Frankfurt. Those cities never lose value.
REFIRE: Are institutional investors returning?
Dr. Joachim Arenth: Absolutely. Swiss and UK funds are already back, sniffing out opportunities. German family offices are also more active than they’ve been in years. Historically, when family offices start moving, institutional investors follow soon after. It’s a cycle we’ve seen after every crisis. And this one is no different.
REFIRE: So what makes 2025 particularly appealing?
Dr. Joachim Arenth: It’s a confluence of factors. Interest rates have stabilized, and inflation is trending downwards, but property prices haven’t yet surged. It’s the calm before the storm. Investors who act now, with a clear strategy and the right partners, can take advantage of these paradise-like conditions. The key is not to wait until everyone else jumps in. Smart money moves early, and the signs of renewed activity are already there.